FRANKFURT WIESBADEN ( Dow Jones) – German consumer prices in July, mainly due to substantially higher prices for petroleum products a bit . Taking work out of strong seasonal effects and the volatility of energy prices, bank economists see any strengthening of inflationary pressure. Both the current and for the coming year they expect a relatively low inflation rates.
According to preliminary calculations by the Federal Statistical Office ( Destatis ) from Wednesday , the price index rose on the basis of data from six states by 0.2 % over the previous month. The annual inflation was estimated at 1.1%. In June , consumer prices had risen on a monthly basis by 0.1 %, annual inflation had stood at 0.9 %.
It raised the price increase is not as clear as expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast for July rose by 0.3 % in a single month and an increase of 1.2% within a year.
"From a strengthening of inflation can be no question , "said Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen , "for the exclusion of seasonal effects, and the volatile energy and food prices , the prices continue to move sideways rather . " The core inflation rate would have been easy to assess Solveen . Even louder demands for greater wage increases should not change much : "Until these are reflected in a stronger increase in prices will still take some time. " Inflation will remain low estimate Solveen still expected beyond 2011 .
Similarly, expressing the economists at HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt: "If we compare the changes in German Living with respective averages of recent years is striking that both the increase in July and at current 2010s year cumulative months change offer a lower than the Average of the last years. " This underlines the view of economists that still prevails in Germany a disinflaltionäres environment. For the full year 2010, the inflation rate at 1.1 % is followed by 1.3% in 2011.
Destatis that the inflation rate in July as in the previous month was mainly determined by the strong price increases for heating oil and fuels. Moreover, were recorded for the year as strong increases in fruit and vegetables.
In contrast, the prices of gas as well as in central and remote heating had worked the previous year inflation. In a single month is reported to rise to the seasonal prices of package tours and accommodation, with the package but were below the level of July 2009.
The calculated for European purposes of comparison Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP ) rose in July from the previous month by 0.3 % for the year as the index increased by 1.2 %. In June, the HICP annual rate had stood at 0.8%. The final results for July, wants the Federal Office on 10 August to present .
Website: www.destatis.de
- By Mark Lempp , Dow Jones Newswires , +49 (0 ) 69 29 725 300
konjunktur.de @ dowjones.com
DJG / mle / kth / sh
