Red Square in Moscow: "> It is a mistake for Russia to reduce oil and gas . "Source: AP
MOSCOW . Russia’s capital is sweating more than thirty degrees in the shade – and have been for two weeks . Some investors seem , it will increase the heat to his head : " It is risky not to invest in Russia, not vice versa, " exulted the former Intel CEO Craig Barrett a few days ago to an investment conference.
New tones are , especially for foreign investors. They had beaten until recently a large arc around Europe’s biggest growth market , now they are suddenly back. With high expectations, fund managers rush in the Russian market : "I see the world no Emerging Market, which offers similar positive opportunities such as Russia , is pleased Ghavani Peter , a partner at the Moscow investment bank Troika Dialog.
Crude oil prices likely to rise
Granted, in the last six months, it went with the Russian shares down : How the titles fall in the ruble -based MICEX index by about eleven percent in electronic trading , the RTS stock exchange by about 15 percent. Market experts see this as course correction , financial stocks such as Sberbank had almost tripled in value last year – that was too high.
However, there are some good reasons to invest in Russia : In 2009 the economy shrank by 7.9 percent more , this year the government expects GDP growth of four percent. Analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon even at 5.8 percent. The public debt remains limited , modified unhealthy grown on credit corporations were able to restructure their debts , the central bank keeps interest rates low. Meanwhile , industrial production is growing monthly double-digit inflation were up May at a measly 3.9 percent.
Such economic rate Sunbeam prosper in the shares but so far little : The oil and gas title lost since January 17 percent , the market leader Gazprom even 22 percent. Financial stocks gave the current year by about twelve percent. Depending on the industry , the reductions are about twenty to thirty percent.
All those who think the Russian parquet at risk , always have the oil price in mind. His movements were the Moscow stock exchanges in the past for almost pantomime. "Whoever believes in persistently falling oil prices should not invest , "says Stock Exchange specialist Ghavani .
Of these, go out but currently the least , on the contrary: "If the BP Crisis in the Gulf of Mexico to a shortage of oil supply will likely rise , the barrel price, " expects Peter Bodis , a fund manager at Pioneer Investments. Russian oil companies such as Lukoil, Gazprom or Rosneft could benefit from disproportionately, " nowhere in the world is the promotion of so favorable as in Russia, " said Bodis .
Stable long-term profits
In the long run Russian oil giant , however, have to struggle with the same cost increases as other industry leaders . In the longer term , the fund manager looks more to trade , telecom – and consumer values. "The markets in Russia are far from saturated , "said Bodis . The quick profit was not expected , but long-term stable profits.
"It is a mistake for Russia to reduce oil and gas , "said Masha Gordon and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Attractive structural opportunities with manageable risks it measures to the papers of steel and trading companies. It would often forget that Russia is the largest consumer market in Europe. Overall, Gordon sees in Russian equities still much room for improvement .
The growing optimism of some analysts also spurred the current discussion about Russia. Mantra repeated President Dmitry Medvedev , his country urgently needs fresh investment. That is why he wants to lead Russia into the World Trade Organization, to encourage innovation in government billions and improve the overall investment climate in his country further. Pioneer manager Bodis brakes but the expectations . "The current modernization attempts should not be the reason why we get into Russia, " he says. With the conversion of a State Petro in a normal economy had already failed many governments. The Russian stock market will continue to depend on the ups and downs of commodity markets.
This part of the Academy ends investors to emerging markets. Next week our new series: It was only hyped start , then demonized – which certificates are really worth.
Opportunities in the East
Oil and Gas: The ups and downs of shares Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil depends not only on the price of oil, but also political risks. These are two reasons why investors make shares of Russian oil fingers. In the medium term papers but are rising in value, because the Russians until further promote their oil much cheaper than competitors from the West.
Finances: The Russian economy is growing , investment must be financed somehow . Until the crisis, it drew mainly from Russian companies to obtain liquidity in the West. The sudden devaluation of the ruble , however, led to problems. Now, investors borrow money in the domestic inspire – and the prices of Russian banks.
Consumer Goods / Retail
: In Russia , the private consumption in addition to revenues from oil and gas exports , the second most important contributor to the gross domestic product. Both in the consumer goods industry and trade , the country is still far from saturation – which recommends the shares of the sectors as a long term investment options .
Tags: troika dialog, ceo craig barrett, goldman sachs, intel ceo, crude oil prices
